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Model / Deliver a Project / Prove It Works / Adjust for Optimism
STEP 11 of 12

Adjust for Optimism.

The biggest risk is you. Our natural optimism, and biases like availability bias and inability to let go, can lead to poor choices.

After this step, you should be clearer on

  • —Where optimism may be distorting the plan
  • —What similar-project data says
  • —How much contingency you may need

Humans are hardwired to be optimistic. Most projects take longer and cost more than first predicted. It is not a coincidence.

What can go wrong, will go wrong.

Your main work on this step

Questions to reflect on

You do not need to complete everything. Use what helps.

Where is optimism distorting our judgement?

If you tell the people that matter, especially directors, that you have reviewed previous projects for overruns and adjusted your estimates, you will look like you have the answers. Use this data and newfound respect to make your case for the time, money and support that you need.

  • Where are we being too optimistic?
  • Which assumptions need a reality check?
  • What would a more sober forecast look like?

Rough notes are fine.

How will we adjust our estimates?

Use real data from similar projects. Look at how accurate their original estimates were versus the actual time and cost. Ideally, you will use the projects identified in Job 1. Use this insight to adjust your estimates for the project and its components. This is your contingency.

  • Which similar projects can we use as a reference?
  • How accurate were their original estimates?
  • What contingency should we build into time, cost, or benefits?

Rough notes are fine.

OptionalUse a Readiness Check to pause and reflect before moving on.

Readiness Check

Go deeper

Related Plays

How to use these plays:
If you have a pilot: Play 1 → Play 3
If you do not have a pilot: Play 2 → Play 3

RECOMMENDED – 01

Plan with a Pilot

Use what the pilot taught you to plan delivery with more realism and less optimism.

Explore Play

OPTIONAL – 02

Planning from a Design

Plan delivery from the design when you do not have a pilot to learn from.

Explore Play

RECOMMENDED – 03

Build a Contingency

Prepare realistic contingency based on what could go wrong and what the project can absorb.

Explore Play

Ready to move on?

Once you have adjusted for optimism and built a safer contingency, you are in a better position to decide whether to continue, learn more, or stop.

Next: Be Ready to Step Away Return to Prove It Works

Confluity Project Model sitemap

Model overview

What are Jobs?

The model is organised into three Jobs:

Job 1: Set the Direction – shape the purpose into options and a preferred way forward.

Job 2: Prove It Works – test assumptions and reduce risk before going big.

Job 3: Make It Happen – deliver at scale and make sure people actually use what you build.

What are Simple Rules?

The model contains simple rules. These are short principles drawn from experience that help you make better decisions. Jobs, tasks, and plays help you put those rules into practice.

What is a Play?

A Play is a method or tool that helps you apply a rule or complete a task. Use the recommended Plays first for simpler projects before exploring others.

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